Poll tracker

As of 2 October, The Petek’s average of the last 10 published polls puts Likud on 23 seats, Yashar on 22 and B'Yachad on 11. The Netanyahu bloc totals 56, the Change bloc 50 and the Arab parties 13, against the 61 a government needs.

Seat projections from published polls. The site-wide average uses the last 10, as of 2 October. Numbers refresh automatically from the public polling record.

Current average

How the seats split

A government needs 61 of 120 seats. These are the three groupings the arithmetic keeps coming back to, on the average above.

Each bar is a full majority wide, so a filled bar means that bloc could govern on its own. Totals are the rounded party averages added up, so they need not come to exactly 120, and a list polling below the threshold counts as nothing here even where it is close.

Who has ruled out whom

The seat totals are the easy part. These are the stated refusals that decide whether a bloc can actually convert its seats into a government. Each one is a public statement, and politicians have walked such statements back before.

• Ben-Gvir and Ra'am have publicly ruled out sitting together.
• Otzma Yehudit and the Joint List rule each other out.
• Religious Zionism refuses Arab-party partners, and vice versa.
• Religious Zionism and the Joint List rule each other out.
• Liberman has refused to sit with Haredi parties since 2019.
• Eisenkot conditions any partnership on change at the top of Likud.
• Bennett and Lapid built their alliance on replacing Netanyahu.
• The Democrats rule out serving under Netanyahu.
• Eisenkot's declared conditions exclude Otzma Yehudit.
• No party on the Joint List has joined an Israeli governing coalition, and Balad rejects doing so on principle.

Build a coalition yourself → Pick lists, count to 61, see which refusals you hit.

The trend

Every poll

Tap a list to filter the table down to it, and tap more to compare. Each column is headed by the list’s ballot letters, or by its first name where it has none, and the header opens the party page.

Showing 13 of 13 lists.

A dash means below the threshold or not running in that poll.

How these numbers update

A scheduled job reads the poll feeds published by Kan, i24NEWS and mako every hour, normalizes party names, checks each poll adds up to 120 seats, and stores one row per outlet per fieldwork date. Pages read a rolling average of the last ten polls and refresh hourly.

Take the numbers

The average is published as JSON and CSV, each carrying the seat figure per list, the fieldwork date it is current to, and the number of polls behind it. Free to quote, cite and link with attribution to The Petek and a link to the page used.